the data don't tell a clear story... the elephant polipatuon in zimbabwe is increasing exponentially from 1973 to present and you can't see any change in 1989 at all (when the program was implemented and therefore where we should have seen a change in trend). another interesting thing is that the relative increase in elephant polipatuons is the same... almost a doubling in polipatuon size over 20 years (between 1973 and 1993 in zimbabwe and between 1989 and 2009 in kenya). relative changes in polipatuon are a better indicator of number of surviving offspring per parent. it would be hard to understand the effectiveness of the two programs without understanding the polipatuon biology too.